Facebook to 1 Billion Users – I predict August 16, 2012

EDITED 8-23  Looks like the date has come and gone…I would have thought FB would have made a big deal.  Nothing.  Oh well…

Facebook had a terrible earnings call yesterday that has sent the stock plummeting.  Today, Mashable had a link that Facebook could reach one billion users in August based on an analyst report on iCrossing.

I’ve been keeping track of how many users are on Facebook for a while and thought I’d throw my data aginst it.  I am a little rusty from my GE Six Sigma days and a little busy to do a full regression.  So, I simply used Microsoft Excel’s Scatter Chart with a simple linear regression to see what it could predict.  I used data from April 2007 on as low growth in the beginning was throwing off the numbers

BOLD PREDICTION – Facebook will reach 1 Billion users on August 16, 2012


Linear Regression Equation – y = .5405x – 21299

y – Users In Millions

x – Date

R² = 0.9567

Data is here if you want to do your own thing.

Dec-04 1
Dec-05 5.5
Dec-06 12
Apr-07 20
Oct-07 50
Aug-08 100
Jan-09 150
Feb-09 175
Apr-09 200
Jul-09 250
Sep-09 300
Dec-09 350
Feb-10 450
Jul-10 500
Sept-10 550
Jan-11 600
Feb-11 650
Jun-11 750
Sep-11 800
Feb-12 845
Apr-12 901
Jul-12 955
Posted on July 27, 2012 at 3:28 pm by benphoster · Permalink
In: Strategy

One Response

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  1. Written by Chris
    on September 9, 2012 at 9:14 am

    I know people around me are abandoning their Facebook accounts these days, rather than signing up for it.

    But most of that contributes from where the new users come from. Perhaps in some semi-developed countries, FB still the best thing to toy with.

    Even here in where I live, an Asia’s developing country, FB has lost its magic touch some time back.

    Maybe a big portion of the new users come from the SEO black-hater who furiously gaming their fan pages’ stats to lure new users thinking they have set up some very popular pages. Also that’s how the Fiverr sellers could sell their 5k likes for a few bucks.

    I am not sure. But you can always get some signals from a company’s PR team. They could identify how legitimate the new signers are by IP addresses.

    Recently they’ve not been super-excited about the user-growth.

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